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Clearly, teens and young adults have reversed
many trends that peaked in the early 1990s -- the same time that Gen-Y
was defined. Was Gen-Y wrong from the start? It could be that the
description of the edgy youth culture of 1993 was a description of the
end of a generation, rather than a beginning.
How
can this statement be reconciled with standard generational boundaries?
Looking at absolute birthrates, Gen-X represents the "baby
bust" decline in births in the US after the 1950s boom. Gen-Y is
often described as an "echo boom" of rising births after 1975.
This definition makes sense for marketers and advertisers, since it
focuses on the differential size of their audience in each generation.
However,
if one believes that generations are real social entities (in other
words, that people born in particular eras of history really share common
traits), other indicators become important. If US generations are defined
by birth rates, the late 1970s rise in births simply reflects the baby
boom entering childbearing age. It wasn't until after 1982 that actual
birth rates began to rise. This boom was long lived -- birth rates in the
US rose above replacement levels in 1990, fell slightly during the
decade, and reached a second peak in 2001. In contrast, Europe and Japan
show long-term declines in birthrates. According to Claire Raines, author
of Generations at Work, "Culturally, we're much more
focused on kids; parents are very involved in their children's lives and
vice versa."
Other
factors point to the early 1980s forming a natural generation boundary.
An unprecedented bull market took hold in the US in 1982 and lasted until
2000. Boomers discovered parenting and promptly created a culture of
child protection ranging from no-tolerance schools to standards-based
learning. Mainstream moviemaking turned away from Exorcist-style,
"devil child" films popular during the 1970s to "beautiful
baby" films like Three Men and a Baby, Raising Arizona, Baby
Boom and Little Man Tate. This trend continued into
the 1990s with Disney's second golden age of animation and the appearance
of super-smart movie tweens in Spy Kids and the Harry
Potter series.
Based
on the evidence, the Gen-Y characterization needs serious revision. One
approach is to confine Gen-Y to the late 1970s cohorts responsible for
early 1990s youth trends, and define a new, "Millennial"
generation with birth dates running from the 1980s to 2000 or 2001. This
approach was first developed in the work of William Strauss and Neil
Howe, who discussed Millennials in their 1991 book Generations and
more recently in Millennials Rising. These authors assign
late 1970s cohorts to Gen-X and put the dividing line between generations
in 1982. Back when "Gen-Y" and "disturbed" were often
said in the same breath, Strauss & Howe predicted that by 2000,
"teen pathologies -- truancy, substance abuse, crime, suicide, unwed
pregnancy -- will all decline."
More
recently, Lynne Lancaster and David Stillman assigned Gen-Y birth years
between 1981 to 1999 in their book When Generations Collide.
Like Strauss & Howe, these authors noted the close parent-child bonds
lacking in the "edgy" Y model. Ron Zemke, Claire Raines and Bob
Filipczak defined a similar post-X generation born between 1980 to 2000
in their book Generations at Work.
In
contrast, Rainmaker's Martin feels it's necessary to classify the 1978 to
1988 cohorts as a unique, mini Gen-Y. According to Martin, "the
problem with longer definitions is that they're too huge" -- in
other words, they cover too much societal change. This analysis puts the
Gen-Y teens of the early 1990s into a unique buffer zone between X-ers
and Millennials.
Whatever
the generational division, there is agreement that kids currently
entering college are something new. According to Strauss and Howe,
Millennials diverge from older Gen-Y models in several key aspects:
- Unlike earlier
generations, Millennials have a near-zero generation gap, and
parent-child co-purchase decisions are common. Martin agrees,
saying: "When you ask this generation who their heroes are, the
majority say their parents." Brands seeking to appeal to this
generation in the name of rebellion will increasingly fall flat.
- Millennials are expected
to retain close parental bonds even after leaving home, and they are
more likely to consult with their parents on major decisions.
Marketing aimed at this generation should consider the input of
parents on big-ticket purchases.
- The "helicopter
parents" of Millennials are increasingly found on campus,
monitoring any physical or moral threat to their children's
progress. Parental input must increasingly be factored into any
beliefs about the greater susceptibility of Gen-Y versus Gen-X to
marketing messages.
- Millennials show greater
interest in family, religion, and community -- at the expense of
celebrity role models and their associated brands.
- Trash-talk pop culture
may lose its influence with today's teens. The rise of Avril Lavigne
-- an ordinary-looking, midriff-free, non-dancing singer hailed as
the "anti-Britney" -- may presage this generation's
backlash against over-hyped, X-treme 1990s culture. Edgy brand
associations may fail to appeal to this increasingly conventional
generation, which looks for social consensus instead of pushing the
limits of taste. In the words of Generations at Work author
Raines, "If the Gen-Y concept is about extra edginess, then,
yes, it's got to go. Marketing efforts targeted at today's teens and
young adults that are based on that picture will be totally
misguided."
- Under constant pressure
by their parents and society to achieve, Millennials find little
common ground with the "slacker" archetype of youth.
Advertising lampooning hard work and celebrating the accidental
success of airheads does not speak to this generation.
- In contrast to
ultra-individualist X-ers, Millennials are group-oriented -- meaning
that they are less interested in an "army of one" and more
interested in the "watch me become we" alternative.
Group-oriented concepts such as "leave no one behind" may
emerge from the movies (2002 movies Lilo and Stich and Black
Hawk Down both used this phrase) and go mainstream.
- Millennials appear to be
using rapid-fire communication via the Internet and other
peer-to-peer media to build a newly inclusive "one" from
their wildly diverse origins. This may, in the words of Howe, cause
Millennials to rally around "a few big, bright and
friendly" brands and trigger brand consolidation.
- Programs ranging from
affirmative action to gender-equity sports-program Title IX reduced
cultural and gender gaps during the Millennial childhood -- but the
gap between rich and poor steadily widened. Millennials are less
hung up on race, gender, or ethnicity than their parents, but may
increasingly be moving toward increased sensitivity to economic
class.
What
does the US experience imply for other countries? During the years of the
US echo boom, birthrates in Europe and Japan fell. This implies that the
global youth culture in westernized countries may be on the verge of
fragmenting. Marketing that appeals to youth in the US may fail
elsewhere, while youth campaigns in other countries may appeal to US
30-somethings.
Strauss
and Howe predict that an international Millennial generation will emerge
in Europe during the next few years, with similar trends appearing in
Japan and other parts of Asia by the end of the decade. A
Millennial-style breakout may be imminent in your location if the
following trends are evident:
- An echo boomlet partly
reversing trends toward smaller families
- A rising obsession with
the safety and education of children
- Warmer relations between
adolescents and their parents
- Recent reversals in
long-standing, negative social trends among teens
- Widespread use of cell
phones and the Internet for peer-to-peer communication
Marketers
and brand owners targeting youth outside the US have a unique advantage.
Unlike their American counterparts, they have time to prepare for the end
of Y edginess, and they will be able to pick and choose among successful
US strategies speaking to the post-X generation.
Whatever
the ultimate outcome of these trends, it is clear that youth marketing
needs to be rethought. A Gen-Y archetype may capture the essence of
today's 20-somethings -- but a new reality is taking hold among teens,
and it doesn't look like 1993.
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